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Debate in Hoxton

I attended an excellent debate in London on Saturday chaired by none other than Sir Michael Portillo MP. Also present was one of my favourite authors, Philip Bobbitt, who duly signed my copy of the Shield of Achilles, a book I have mentioned several times on this blog. I dont have the list to hand of the others who attended, but it also included Lindsey Hilsum from Channel 4 news, Robert Cooper one of the head foreign policy guys in the EU, Michael Gove, a columnist for the Times.

The question of the debate was whether or not the United States is an empire. It was an excellent discussion lasting some 2 hours.

Now as regular readers of my weblog will know, I have a keen interest in the current and future state of transatlantic relations. There has been a number of references here to the idea in the future of a US-EU war within the next 30 – 100 years. There has been some chatter in the Blogosphere too, but not a significant amount. Glenn Reynolds put the chance of such a conflict, albeit cold, at about 40%.

So being the keen and inquisitive person you all know and love, I asked some of the panel members the same question.

Philip Bobbitt listened with interest to the question, and his reply was simply “the chances are not negligable”. I think he was staying safe there, but he had considered carefully no doubt, he is exceptionally articulate.

Michael Portillo had simply never heard of the idea, but failed to give an opinion, simply saying it was a very interesting question.

Lindsey Hilsum had obviously thought of it before, she had alread noted the ‘deep schism’ growing between Europe and American. She thought it “a distinct possibility within that timeframe”.

And I didnt get a reply from any of the others due to time constraints. But when I did ask the question of the panel, the audience of some 150 people were aghast, with several ruffles of laughter, and some ghasps of astonishment at the question. That in itself was interesting.

The most common argument I came across in the discussion afterward was the such a split or conflict could not occur simply because of the shared culture and history of Europe and America. Another common rebuttal that politcal entities such as Chine would have a far greater impact on future EU and US policy that such a split would be impossible.

I digress, I believe such a schism to a point of a cold war or even an actual conflict to be a distinct possibility. It is something we should discuss now.

The War

Just to clarify, I meant there are two types only who are still fighting. Those baathists who have no future because of their actions under the old regime and foreigners.The mercenary tag is meant in a very broad sense, no-one is fighting Coalition (note: not just American) forces for money. It is clear that there are non-Iraqi muslims fighting, as there were non-Aghans fighting for the Taleban and non-Bosnians (albeit more nobly) fighting in former Yugoslavia and there have been several reports, I’ll see if I can find you a few links. To answer your question, it is only western style projection” that leads you to assume that there Iraqis sufficiently resentful of the presence of foreign troops to fight against them. there’s a huge difference between common-or-garden anti-american sentiment (as is found throughout Europe) and the motivation to kill and risk death. It is easy to understand the notion of “the resistance” and it is sloppy reporting to characterise what is happening in Iraq as some kind of spontaneous “resistance to occupation” like the mythical, false French “resistance” to the Nazis.

Im not so sure Frank. I was at a debate on Saturday and had the pleasure to meet Lindsey Hilsum from Channel 4 News. She characterized the feeling in Iraq for me.

From her experiences in Iraq she believed that the Iraqis “resent the Americans, they believe they are being colonised”. She noted a piece of graffitti scrawled on the plinth of the famous statue that was pulled down by the Americans, written now: “All done, go home”.

I dont think there is evidence either way to support a claim that it is a “Western style projection”, nor would I say that the anti-Americanism present in Arab nations is entirely the same thing as anti-Americanism found in Western European nations, I think they are perhaps two different kettles of fish.

Here’s a thought for you Gavin: Do you think the US army is composed entirely of practicing Christians? There are Muslim, Jewish and atheist soldiers too.

No i don’t. But let me throw it back, do you think a majority or a minority of soldiers in the US army would claim to be Christian? I don’t doubt the existence of other religions in the US armed forces. But like my original point, it is Christianity that would be associated with Amercian invaders/liberators more than any other – not least in the eyes of Iraqis.

By referring to the use of religion in such a broad context (different methods, different extremes) you dilute the point until it is almost meaningless. What will have a tangible effect is if religion is used coercively and to extreme, that is more relevant and interesting than a statement that the leader (or some of the soldiers) of one country prays to God as does the leader (or soldiers) of another country pray to Allah. What matters is if that country places a sanction on you because you don’t conform to the majority religious practice. I couldn’t give a stuff if Bertie Ahern and the whole Dail prayed to Satan as long as they don’t require me to join their rituals

How do I dilute the point? My point is a meaningful one. The observation of religious belief and practice is fascinating. The upsurdity in many ways, the contradictions, the sheer hypocricy of religion.

Religion debate 2

Now for my reply to Franks second post.

Ok, I think there’s a little bit of “quagmiring” going on here. The original post was about Private Jessica Lynch so I inferred that Gavin was talking about Iraqi soldiers fighting before Baghdad fell. In that case, the “regular” Iraqi army was largely composed of conscripts who showed little interest in fighting and allowed Coalition forces a clear run at Baghdad. After Baghdad fell and to date the only ones still fighting Coalition forces are “irregulars” composed of Al-Qaeda mercenaries (paid in “glory” rather than money) and die-hard Saddam loyalists who are so inextricably linked with the old regime that there is no future for them in a post-Saddam Iraq. The latter selection are fighting for ideological reasons.

Hmm. Im glad you brought that up, as I think it is important to draw the distinction between ‘soldiers’ before the regime fell, and after.

So you appear to be saying there are three kinds of assailants in Iraq presently:

1. Al-Qaeda operatives.
2. People that kill for the money.
2. Die hard Saddam loyalists. (no pun intended)

I find it incredibly hard to make assumptions like this. Dont get me wrong here Frank, im not disputing that these two scenarios are likely. But like any ‘war’ so much information and disinformation is bandied about that its hard to know what to think.

I never came across any news reports that mentioned Al-Qaeda actively at work in Iraq in the last 3 months, but I might have missed that. Perhaps their attacks took the form of the couple of suicide attacks that occured early in the occupation/liberation?

I guess people killing for money happens in any state.

Saddam loyalists must exist as you rightly point out.

But could there be people who want to kill Americans, because they dont like them? Do Arabs generally like American soldiers walking down their street? Its hard to judge the situation in Iraq, some news reports suggest that Iraqis hate the American presence, mass rallies etc, while other reports suggest that Iraqis are happy to see Americans, and hope the Saddam loyalists would just die – hard.

What do people think about this? Comments are welcome.

Ok, and my point is nothing to do with the relative merits of either religion but a simple observation that a juxtaposition of the Religious Right in the US with Wahaabism obscures more than it reveals. They are emphatically not the same sort of thing

Again with the moral relativism, the “invaders” as Gavin tendentiously describes Coalition forces (why not liberators?) are not motivated by religion. They are a disciplined force carrying out the orders of democratic leaders.

I think you are missing my point again here. I am not talking about the religious right in the US or Wahaabism, I am talking about religion in the broadest possible context. I am not talking about the religious left either (if there is such a thing)! LOL.

I am not talking about any particular sect – my point is something that as an atheist I would imagine you find interesting. That on two sides of a battlefield in any war, not particularly Iraq, it is an interesting observation that both armies might be praying to the same god, or different gods and believe their path to be divine. When one is victorious they believe that god was on their side, and when defeated the believe they have done something to displease the god(s). The broadest appliction of observing religion in society. It points to what I see as a ridiculous part of religious belief.

In relation to Iraq; no, the war is not being fought by the US on religious grounds. But tell me that no single American soldier does not pray to god and believe god to be on their side, and I will call you a liar! LOL. Tell me that no Iraqi man who is a muslim, no matter how extreme or not, who goes to kill American soldiers that he does not believe allah to be with him then so too I call you a liar!

Ultimately my point is a philosophical one, not political.

If you really think that religion is used by the state in the same way by USA and Saudi Arabia (note: not the more liberal UAE) I refer you back to my invitation: Consider the relative merits of living in, say, Riyadh, where all sorts of freedoms from minor to major are denied, to any equivalent-sized American city where you can live more or less as you please.

I dont, and I didnt say it did. I mentioned the UAE because I have visited there on three occasions and have more experience with that regime than that in Saudi. I also made it clear here:

how religion is used by the state, in both cases and to different methods and extremes, as a method or tool of nationalism and patriotism, and as a method of control.

In both cases to different methods and different extremes. Religion has been used for centuries in different ways, and as an atheist you admit earlier that religion helps people because it is”comforting to believe that there is a grand design and that there is life after death. Thus we shouldn’t be surprised that religion has “evolved” to tell people what they want to hear.”

So too has religion been used, no less in catholic Ireland, to make people think and believe in certain ways, and to be subservient to the state in others. Would you agree?

So your second putting of the question of Riyadh versus Rhode Island is null. I never said religion was used in the same way, only that religion can and is used, to varying degress, in similar ways all over the world.

On religion again

Frank has responded to my little piece on religion. He has raised some interesting points, with which I will attempt to deal with.

To be honest I dont have a problem with the agnostic tag. I have met people who are theists, and I have met people who are atheists. Lots of them. All very interesting people with very interesting ideas. I have read atheistic literature like say, Ludovic Kennedy and some theistic stuff while studying philosophy.

Perhaps it would be helpful to the debate if I considered some definitions, that is my definitions.

To me at least, a theist is someone that ‘believes’ a greater being, entity or god to exist. ‘god does exist’

An atheist is someone who does not ‘believe’ such an entity exists. ‘god does not exist’

An agnostic is someone who does not know whether god exists or not. ‘I dont know’.

‘Chickenshit sadoes’ doesn’t really cut it with me I’m afraid.

“This idea that “atheism requires as much of a leap of faith as theism” will not stand; any atheist might be converted in an afternoon if God came over to his house and started wonder-working, but few convinced believers seem inclined to switch sides just because of the invisibility, silence, and apparent indifference of God. I call myself an atheist, since I’m an unbeliever”

I think what we are talking about here are the possibilities. Is it possible that god exists. However remote, is it possible? Is it possible that the majority are right; that most of the people on this planet are right about a greater entity? Is it logical, and rational to accept the possibility?

I would say yes. It is reasonable to accept the possibility that god does indeed exist. There is no evidence in my view, but I must accept that I could be wrong. I must accept that the other 5.5 billion (or whatever the number is) people might just be right. Im not trying to cover my ass here, im trying to look at this logically.

I remain sceptical, I will weigh the evidence and make a judgement. As of yet I have come across no evidence to support god’s existence. There are some pointers that he might, just might, exist, but these are flimsy at best, and are argued exhaustively among philosophers.

But the honest truth, is that humans are a limited species. We simply don’t know, I don’t think anyone knows whether god exists or not. The possibility remains open, I just don’t know. I dont think im sitting on the fence here. I dont know, nor do the theists, nor the atheists.

I think Colbycosh is working off different definitions than I, and therefore we disagree on definition, not on substance.

Now to deal directly with Franks comments:

You are making a huge assumption here, which is that the Iraqi soldiers were motivated to fight for idealogical reasons, Sure, national pride might have been involved to a certain extent, but, in contrast to Al-Qaeda and Taliban forces, few Iraqi soldiers were “mujaheddin” motivated to fight “the infidel” never mind for Saddam’s glory. One good explanation for the conventional army’s derisory defence is that they were by an large conscripts and their loyalty to Saddam was “enforced”

Frank, in talking about religion I used an example from the Iraq war. I never made an assumption that they were motivated to fight solely for ideological reasons. The point about Iraq is going slightly offtopic in relation to the subject of religion. But I’ll deal with it briefly.

What you seem to be saying is that American soldiers are being killed because Iraqi conscripts are being forced to kill Americans. In every case? Are you denying that Americans are somewhat disliked by Iraqis, Arabs or indeed Muslims in general? Maybe American soldiers were killed because Iraqis wanted to kill them? Just a thought.

I guess its ‘derisory’ defence against the most advanced army in the world is a matter for debate among military historians. How long could any army withstand such an invasion? Anyway thats another debate.

Touch of the old moral relativism there Gavin, there is a huge qualitative difference between seeing terrorism as evil and seeing death and destruction as “glorification” of Allah. Bush doesn’t insult Christianity by describing Saddam or Al-Qaeda as evil, Wahaabist clerics do insult Islam by using it to justify terrorism. Note that the point of 9/11 was the death and destruction and nothing else, the point of the coalition attack on Iraq was to remove from power a brutal dictator. If you really think there is little to choose between these two try to imagine whether you’d prefer to live in the US or Saudi Arabia. That should clarify things

Again the subject is religion, and its effect on society, not the rights and wrongs of Christianity versus Islam. An example of religion in society is the rightousness prevalent in Bush’s speeches with references to god, in god we trust, god save America, may god continue to bless America, etc.

Further, an example of religion in an Islamic society, is well a very mixed potion of religion and state, but ultimately the same belief that ‘allah’ or ‘god’ is on the side of them, as oppose to the invaders, who also happen to believe god to be on their side.

Whats at issue is not whether I would prefer to live in a state like say the UAE as oppose to America, but how religion is used by the state, in both cases and to different methods and extremes, as a method or tool of nationalism and patriotism, and as a method of control.

Again my using if Iraq was merely as example, there are many other precedents throughout history, I just chose the most recent.

President Blair

Timothy Ash with a somewhat useful analysis of Blair’s performance at Congress. His sniping for the use of ‘kind of’ seems a bit senseless, I would say that ‘kind of’ is a commonly used term.It therefore falls into the category of ‘acceptable’ and does not have any American connotations to me, even if it did come from America.

That colloquial “kind of” is already halfway to the American conversational use of “like”. Next time a British prime minister speaks to a joint session of Congress, following Churchill, Attlee, Thatcher and now Blair, he or she – brought up on a diet of the TV sitcom Friends – will probably say: “I know this is, like, late, but we’re, like, sahrreee.”

Nonsense.

Were Blair to fall over the justification of the Iraq war, his Washington induced toppling would be just the latest in a rich line of Anglo-American ironies. We would then lose the best president America will never have – but Europe still might.

More sense.

Eminem

I recently read a reference to Seamus Heaney saying how much he liked Eminem’s poetry. Damn right.

I just watched 8 Mile. I have listend to his music on and off for a couple of years now.

Eminem is one of the most talented artists currently around. He has skill with words, skill with melody, and a keen eye on society itself. A gifted individual.


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