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S&P cuts Ireland outlook

Reuters:

Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services said today it revised its outlook on the Republic of Ireland to negative from stable, on what we view as mounting fiscal pressures and deterioration of key economic sectors. At the same time, the ‘AAA’ long-term and ‘A-1+’ short-term sovereign credit ratings were affirmed. Standard & Poor’s also affirmed its ‘AAA/A-1+’ ratings on the debt programs and instruments of those Irish banks where they are guaranteed until maturity by the Republic of Ireland.

“The outlook revision reflects our opinion of the rising economic policy challenges stemming from the contraction of the key housing, construction, and financial sectors, which have spurred many years of strong economic growth and fiscal consolidation,” said Standard & Poor’s credit analyst Trevor Cullinan. According to the European Commission, property-related tax (capital gains tax and stamp duty) accounted for 15% (3.8% of GDP) of total tax revenues in 2006, falling to 8% in the first eight months of 2008, the single most important factor in the deterioration in the general government balance. We have observed that general government debt levels also increased substantially between 2007 and 2008, by more than 16% of GDP, as a result of the widening deficit, although a substantial portion of the increased indebtedness (10% of GDP) remains in Exchequer cash balances as a liquidity buffer.

We note that the government has also extended guarantees to seven domestic credit institutions through Sept. 29, 2010, increasing general government guaranteed debt to an estimated 228% of GDP in 2009. Banking system exposure to the property and construction sector of about one-third of total loans (excluding interbank lending) suggests a high risk of asset deterioration at these institutions.

The ratings on the Republic of Ireland are supported by what we view as the flexibility of its economy, high per capita income, and a favorable demographic structure. The government’s commitment to contribute 1% of GNP per annum to the National Pensions Reserve Fund (NPRF), in our opinion, reduces the fiscal burden of population aging more than in some other European countries. However, the government is expected to use NPRF assets to assist in funding an estimated EUR10 billion (5% of GDP) recapitalization of its domestic banking sector.

“The negative outlook reflects our view of the likelihood of a downgrade if ongoing fiscal measures to recapitalize the banks and boost the economy fail to improve competitiveness, diversity, and growth prospects, thereby leaving a more difficult-to-manage debt burden,” said Mr. Cullinan. “Conversely, the negative outlook could revert to stable if the government’s strategy is successful and allows public finances to return to the stronger position of recent years,” he added.

Why is this important? This makes it more difficult/expensive for us to borrow. This is a very negative outlook – and could be a portent of further downgrades. More over at the pin.

Demotix

The new website went live today. I prefer it over the previous incarnation. I haven’t started uploading photos (not that there was much to upload, perhaps some Georgia/US election ones).

Not heard of it? It’s a British-based website for photographers to upload and sell their photos, sharing revenue with Demotix (who sell the photos for you). More here.

Sanjay Gupta for Surgeon General?

Say it aint so!

Wonkette says a good analogy would be Judge Judy for Supreme Court. Hehe.

Dr. Gupta, who performs double duty as a medical correspondent for CNN and a neurosurgeon, is a leading contender to fill the high-profile position in the Obama administration. The job could be accepted in the coming days, according to people familiar with the situation at the television network and in the Obama transition.

Morning papers

Ireland

State move to borrow billions will test standing of economy
The first of many billions. We might get screwed on costs too.

8,000 Waterford pensions under threat from collapse
Pension scheme €111m in the red.

Child report dismissed by diocese committee
Apparently the diocese is prepared to sue over the report.

High-rise areas set out in latest draft plan
Planners will refine high-rise policy.

ESB to pay rebates on 100,000 overcharged bill
Shane Ross scores another victory. Why do I feel like ESB are still overcharging though?

More than half of litter fines unpaid
Council staff writing off fines.

FF not able to claim Flynn’s allowance
The allowance she says she is “entitled” to. Hearing that word a lot lately. FF can’t get their hands on it, but it should go to taxpayer. Flynn can feck off.

Elsewhere

In a Quiet Rebellion, Parishioners Keep the Faith
For 1,533 days, parishioners in Massachusetts have been guarding a church so that the archdiocese cannot sell it.

Prosecutors Want Madoff’s Bail Revoked
He apparently tried to mail $1m worth of jewellery to friends.

Twitter-Savvy Hackers Tweak the Twitterati
For anyone not on Twitter, the big news was the spammin’ and the hackin’ and the phishin’. Techcrunch was on it.

Steve Jobs

Has just released the following statement

Dear Apple Community,

For the first time in a decade, I’m getting to spend the holiday season with my family, rather than intensely preparing for a Macworld keynote.

Unfortunately, my decision to have Phil deliver the Macworld keynote set off another flurry of rumors about my health, with some even publishing stories of me on my deathbed.

I’ve decided to share something very personal with the Apple community so that we can all relax and enjoy the show tomorrow.

As many of you know, I have been losing weight throughout 2008. The reason has been a mystery to me and my doctors. A few weeks ago, I decided that getting to the root cause of this and reversing it needed to become my #1 priority.

Fortunately, after further testing, my doctors think they have found the cause — a hormone imbalance that has been “robbing” me of the proteins my body needs to be healthy. Sophisticated blood tests have confirmed this diagnosis.

The remedy for this nutritional problem is relatively simple and straightforward, and I’ve already begun treatment. But, just like I didn’t lose this much weight and body mass in a week or a month, my doctors expect it will take me until late this Spring to regain it. I will continue as Apple’s CEO during my recovery.

I have given more than my all to Apple for the past 11 years now. I will be the first one to step up and tell our Board of Directors if I can no longer continue to fulfill my duties as Apple’s CEO. I hope the Apple community will support me in my recovery and know that I will always put what is best for Apple first.

So now I’ve said more than I wanted to say, and all that I am going to say, about this.

Steve

At least it’s not a recurrence of cancer. The market seems to be ok with it, AAPL is up in premarket.

MacBook Pros

IMG_0135

I’ve been using the late 2008 version of the MacBook Pro now for about two months (on the right). I had my previous MacBook Pro, the mid-2007 model as a point of reference. There are differences, some good, some bad, but overall the latest model wins it – and for one very good reason – the new trackpad.

Not that the 2007 model was anything bad. It originally had OSX Tiger, which I upgraded to Leopard in December 2007. It is a reliable and sturdy laptop, and never let me down. But it was only when I started using the late 2008 model that I could see what I was missing.

IMG_0136

The trackpad on the new model is a wonder. Using any other trackpad on any other computer feels clunky by comparison. Because it is made of glass, it is smooth to touch. It is larger and easier to use than its predecessor. When I go back to using the older MBP, the plastic trackpad feels ugly.

Of course the biggest advantage of the new trackpad is the multitouch. For someone who has not used it, it might be hard to explain just how much this changes how you use the laptop. In OSX it is a god send. My most commonly used gestures are four-fingers in an upward movement to minimise all windows, and four-fingers downward to show all windows in expose. I find myself unconsciously trying to perform the gestures on the old MBP, before I realise I can’t do them. That’s how used to it you become. You don’t even think about it.

In terms of the screen, both models are LED backlit, meaning excellent colour saturation and viewing angles. Both are glossy screens, the first by choice, the late 2008 model only comes in glossy. I never find this to be a problem, though some do. Even in direct sunlight I can clearly read the screen. The colour on the new model seems to be slightly superior, it just feels more defined.

On the downside though, the USB port on the right side of the MBP has disappeared, to make way for the side rather than front slot loading DVD drive. This means that when you attach a wired mouse, the cable plugs into the left side, while the mouse is on the right. A minor inconvenience, but I guess are expecting us all to have a wireless mouse.

The keyboard on the latest model is one of the new flat-keyed versions originally featured on the MacBook Air, and now on all models minus the 17-inch MBP and the still available white MacBook. I like the new keyboard. The older model keyboard was nice too, so I don’t feel like I’m missing out on anything. It does what it says on the tin.

IMG_0138

Overall, I would recommend to anyone considering a new laptop, or a move to Mac, to go Britain and pickup a base model MacBook Pro. They are deadly cheap thanks to a weak sterling. If you are Windows user and are worried about compatibility or usage issues, don’t be, Leopard is many times better and easier to use than either XP or Vista. And if you have Windows apps you want to use, then installing VMware Fusion is a breeze, and you can have both operating systems running side by side.

I was a PC user for the best part of 13 years. I will likely never go back to PC.

New addition

Meet Bella:

IMG_3218

Bella’s owner is taking a year out to travel the world, so she will be staying with us. And Puds.

Suffice to say, Puds has been sceptical of the arrangement thus far. While Bella looks at Puds obliviously, Puds sneaks around the maruading dog like she is the devil himself. So far though, they have been getting on ok, except for stealing each other’s food now and then.

Puds has also made himself alot less vocal when looking for food, lest the dog figure out his location, or take an interest in what Puds is looking for.

Bella is very well trained, and despite not being her owner, she will follow commands from me like asking her to go to bed. She also tends to get excited when you say the word “walk”, so it is rather W-A-L-K.

IMG_0141


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