Myths, Lies and Spin – NAMA

[Via bostonorberlin on the Pin]

We are all to blame, we are all to responsible, we all had our heads in the trough
MYTH/LIE/SPIN
2,000 individual loans make up the €77 billion in toxic bad loans the tax payer is taking on.
150 individuals are responsible for €50 billion of the toxic bad loans the tax payer is taking on.
€32 billion of the bank bailout is belonging to just two banks, chaired by two individuals who have since retired Michael Fingleton and Sean Fitzpatrick
There are just over 160 Members of Dail Eireann
There are 84 TDs in Government FF, Green, Independents
There are 81 TDs in Opposition

We have reached the Bottom (I) – Brian Lenihan
MYTH/LIE/SPIN
He provides no report, countrywide analysis or figures to prove this, it is simply a soundbyte.
If we have hit the bottom then where are the buyers flooding the market.
Just as you cant call the top until after the fact, one cant call the bottom either
He is basing this on the rental yields on commercial property in Dublin, which is a small part, of one market in one city in Ireland, There’s no evidence we have reached bottom in Waterford, Cork, Limerick, Nenagh, Thurles, Cahir Borrisonossory, Clifden, etc.
There’s no evidence we have reached bottom in residential property, no evidence we have reached bottom in development land.
Some estate agent commentators still feel we have another 20% to fall.
And by all international standard house prices in Ireland are still over priced.

We have reached the bottom. (II)
MYTH/LIE/SPIN
The governments own adviser contradicts this
ALAN AHEARNE (Economist )Tuesday, September 16, 2008 Irish Times
Two conditions are necessary for a revival in exports: a rebound in economic activity abroad and a substantial improvement in cost competitiveness at home AA Income tax rates will need to rise.
This projected path for economic activity looks implausible. Weak incoming data, a deteriorating outlook for growth abroad and the scale of adjustment in the housing market that has still to take place point to significant contractions in GDP both this year and next. The economy may stabilise in 2010 as the drag from new homebuilding fades, but we will probably have to wait until 2011 for a rebound to strong growth

House Prices have reached Bottom (III)
MYTH/LIE/SPIN
Again the governments own adviser contradicts this and says we wont hit bottom until 2011
ALAN AHEARNE (Economist )
The international experience of housing booms and busts shows that real (that is, inflation-adjusted) house prices typically decline for nearly five years following the peak. Real house prices peaked in Ireland in the fourth quarter of 2006. Typically, house prices give up almost all of the gains recorded in the five years before the peak. That translates into a drop in real house prices here of about one third by 2011.

4-5 Years for Recessions and property crashes to run their course.
MYTH/LIE/SPIN
The government is spinning that the property crash and recession has bottomed out as they only run 4-5 years.
The average length of recent recessions has been 6 years as per a recent Goldman Sachs report.
As this is an average who is to say the length of the recession in Ireland will not be at the extreme of this range.
If peak of the boom was late 2006. we have until late 2011 minimum, best case , late 2012 according to Goldman Sachs and sometime past late 2013 if we are on the wrong side of the average. Again BL still claims we have hit bottom.
If the recession has not run its course and could have legs fro a few more years how can the property market have already bottomed out.

If NAMA hasn’t turned a profit or broke even in 10 years, it means the country/economy hasn’t recovered and so NAMA is the least of our worries.
MYTH/LIE/SPIN
If the country hasn’t recoverd NAMA and the bonds issued will still be an issue and have to be paid off.
And most likely NAMA, and the massive debt it has put on the country will be part of the reason why the country hasn’t recovered.

No cost to the tax payer
MYTH/LIE/SPIN
All government bonds are paid for by the Tax payer.
The tax payer is already hit with levies and increased taxes to fund current borrowing which is set to increase.
The tax payer is already hit with levies and increased taxes to fund the extra borrowing required to pay for the 7 billion already given to the banks.
The tax payer is already hit with levies and increased taxes to fund the extra interest rate on our current borrowing we are being charged on the international markets because the country is in such turmoil.
Outside of NAMA our borrowing is still increasing, all of which will cost the taxpayer.
Bank of Ireland has already received 3Billion Anglo 4 Billion.

Interest on bonds issued is only 1.5%.
MYTH/LIE/SPIN
This is a variable Interest rate. The interest rate will be reset every 6 months and is based on ECB rates. So if ECB rates rise so too will the NAMA bond rates.
If ECB interest rates were to hit 4%, that would mean an extra 2 Billion in interest payments we would have to make to the BANKS who we gave the bonds to for their bad loans .
Experts have said long term ECB interest rates are forecast to increase and could be 3% in the medium to long term

We already own Anglo so the purchase of its loans can be ignored as its one hand of the Govt. paying another hand of the Govt.
MYTH/LIE/SPIN
We have nationalized Anglo but we also pumped 4 Billion euro into it. 4 Billion Euro diverted from other parts of the state, 4 billion we ultimately had to borrow, 4 Billion we still have to pay back, 4 Billion we are paying interest on.

The 7 Billion Premium paid on the current market value was required to get the banks on board.
MYTH/LIE/SPIN
There is no evidence to suggest the banks would not have taken a smaller premium or even none at all.
The market has responded, 30% jump in bank shares , it was the steal of the century and the banks and the markets know that.

All we need is a 10% jump in property prices for NAMA to work.
MYTH/LIE/SPIN
Its more like a 15% jump that would be required for NAMA to break even.
We are still in a falling market, if we fall for another year or two, then we may require a 18,20,25+% jump from that point to get us back to breaking even.
Plus its all pre-supposses we are at the bottom, but what if we are not and lots of international experts say we are not.

€77 bn loans.
60% non-performing.
9 bn rolled-up interest.
From the Zoe case, it appears that the liquidation value of non-performing loans is 25%.
77-9=68
68 – (68*0.6) = 27.2
(68*0.6) = 40.8 * 0.25 = 10.2
Assuming none of the performing loans go bad, are at least 100% LTV, and are at market price, total asset value = 37.4 bn.

The percentage increase from €37 billion to €54 billion is 45.95%, not 10%.

House Prices will increase and bring NAMA with it.
MYTH/LIE/SPIN
The ESRI and IMF have already forecast negative growth for next year. How are we going to get rising house prices in a falling contracting economy.

The NAMA model will recapitalize the bank
MYTH/LIE/SPIN
Because the government have not released figures its not apparent this will in fact work.
This will not solve all banks issues they still hav to raise funding on the international markets. ‘The Economist’
In fact AIB have already said they will need to go to International markets for further funding of 2 Billion.

We have reached bottom, the economy will turn around and grow, house prices will increase (10%) all to the benefit of NAMA
MYTH/LIE/SPIN
To improve our competitiveness in a tougher global market we need prices in Ireland to fall more.
To improve Irelands competitiveness we needs costs, salarys, Govt spending , all to go down.
To keep the jobs we have we needs costs, salarys, Govt spending , all to go down.
All this will produce the opposite of rising house prices, it produces falling house prices, people have less money for a house.
Irelands economic recovery and NAMA breaking even are diametrically opposed.

The Long Term Economic Value of the bad loans NAMA is taking represents a good investment
MYTH/LIE/SPIN
The govt seems to have based this statement on the rental yields in Dublin which is a just one commercial segment of the market, worth approx €8bn.
NAMA’s entire estimation of long-term value hinges on rents holding constant in this subset (Dublin) of a subset (commercial projects) of a subset (projects underway) of a subset (Ireland) of the total loan book.

The ECB is backing this plan and giving the Government or banks this money to buy the NAMA bonds
MYTH/LIE/SPIN
The ECB does not buy Government bonds. The banks are using the bonds as collateral to go to the ECB and say we have Govt bonds therefore the ECB will lend to them.
The extent of the ECB guarantee only goes so far as it sets interest rates but the ECB has given no indication it will not raise ECB rates in he medium term, thereby making NAMA a much more expensive solution.
But at no time does the ECB take the bonds, the banks are left with the and could in fact sell them on the open market therby competing with our own NTMA bonds.

Government NAMA 54Billion versus Regular NTMA Govt Bonds
MYTH/LIE/SPIN
The government has given no analysis of what the impact the NAMA bonds will have on the regular NTMA bonds that the government will also be issuing in the coming years to fund our day to day expenses.
There is nothing in NAMA legislation to say what the banks have todo with the NAMA bonds.
There is nothing in the NAMA legislation to stop the banks from selling NAMA bonds on the open market and therefore competing with NTMA bonds .

Fianna Fail will take the hard decisions.
MYTH/LIE/SPIN
FF has a proven track record of letting the bankers and civil servants get off very lightly, golden parachutes etc…
FF has a track record during the boom of not taking the hard decisions.
FF has a proven record of giving every tax break possible to developers, stock market speculators, and builders
FF has a proven record of making very very bad regulatory decisions which got us into this mess.

Dublin Yields at an all time high and this suggests property values are bottoming out Brian Lenihan
MYTH/LIE/SPIN
There is a law in this country that says commercial rents cannot be marked down. Many rents/yields are high only because the current tenant is not allowed by law to renegotiate the rent and get it lower. A new law allows for future leases not existing leases to have downward revisions.
The State is also propping up rental yields, paying 60m per year.
The Govt looking for lower rents and saving tax payers money is diametrically opposed to NAMA keeping rent high.
40% of commercial property is currently empty in some parts of Dublin.
Look around the city the place is awash with offices for rent

The IMF backs the NAMA model
MYTH/LIE/SPIN
IMF 2008 report has stated government backed asset management agencys do not work due to political and legal entanglements

NAMA will get credit flowing
MYTH/LIE/SPIN
There is nothing in the NAMA legislation to FORCE Banks to start lending to ordinary people and SMEs
There is no evidence credit has started flowing yet in the UK and the US after their massive bailouts , in fact credit indexes are showing that credit is actually contracting .

Current Market Value is 47Billion
MYTH/LIE/SPIN
Based on the opinions of many vested interests who have advised the Govt.
Based on the assumption theres is a market for these properties, but there is no evidence a market exists , if no market exists much of this property and land is actually worthless.
Also based on the assumption we have hit bottom.
This figure is pulled from the air. The Govt provides no figures or reports to back this claim up.
Market value assumptions seem to be just based on rent and yields in just the Dublin, which is a very vague amount.
If current market value is 47 Billion then why don’t the banks just sell the stuff for 47 Billion and they wouldn’t need any tax payer money.

GOVT open to other parties contributions
MYTH/LIE/SPIN
Bank chiefs have worn out the rug going in and out to government building meeting with their friends in the Govt.
Bank chiefs were summoned to Leinster house in the days before NAMA at a time when other Govt parties were not allowed access to any of the details even though those parties promised non-disclosure of any info they were allowed to see.

We do not have time to debate this further its time to implement this plan to save the country.
MYTH/LIE/SPIN
The government just spent the last 6 weeks on holidays , there is plenty time to debate and amend this legislation.

All the other alternatives would not work and would cost more
MYTH/LIE/SPIN
Many commentators , including Nobel laureates have stated other alternatives proposed by the opposition parties including temporary nationalization would not only be cheaper, less risky and also implement faster to get credit flowing.
Many economists have said other alternatives are better.

The Government is not doing any favours for its banking buddies.
MYTH/LIE/SPIN
Prior to the nationalization of Anglo, civil servants in the Dept. Of Finance had prepared a proposal to nationalize Anglo and wind it down.
The minister went against this and instead issued a blanket guarantee for Anglo.
Anglo Irish Bank was kept alive for 3 months after the Govt guarantee during which time significant bonuses were paid before it was nationalized.
The two chairmen of the Anglo and Irish Nationawide have been allowed walk away with massive payouts and pensions even though the tax payer is now buying bad loans from their banks for more than 30 Billion Suro.

Government is extracting retribution from the banks
MYTH/LIE/SPIN
The Government didn’t enforce pay restraint on the banks when they had them over a barrel before writing the guarantee, nor
has they taken this opportunity now when we have a chance regarding the premium and is actually paying over the odds
There is nothing in the NAMA legislation to control the executive pay or bonus culture at the banks which we are bailing out.

This is not a bank bailout
MYTH/LIE/SPIN
Not worthy of a rebuttal, complete utter BS

The Government will pursue Developers for full repayment of loans & Govt does not believe developers assets are being hidden
MYTH/LIE/SPIN
The is lots of documentary evidence, historical incidents to indicate most developers have already pocketed large reserves of cash and holdings off shore or transferred assets to other family members or entities to evade Government acquisition.
For gods sake they do this during the boom time , of course they would be doing this during a downturn.
The government have not costed how much it will cost to pursue these assests.

The Government has been open and transparent
MYTH/LIE/SPIN
Dated subordinated debt was guaranteed by the govt, in its blanket bank guarantee, with no explanation .
Why was this done, this type of debt is taken on with a risk, the investor knows there’s a risk, yet the govt gave a guarantee .

The FF Government has already implemented overhaul of the banking industry
MYTH/LIE/SPIN
Over 80% of Irish Banks board members have been in place since before 2008 .
There has been NO clearout of Irish Banks

There will be transparency and legislation to prevent non-political interference
MYTH/LIE/SPIN
Multiple sections of the NAMA legislation is to be at the direct discretion and exclusively by The Minister of Finance.

NAMA will not need much staffing as the banks will continue to manage the loans
MYTH/LIE/SPIN
Huge legal issues exist here here as well as conflict of interest for bank employees in managing loans belonging to another institution ie. NAMA
Govt has admitted recently it gave Rody Molloy €1.4 million so that he would not drag the state down the Four courts.
Think what 2000 developers who are not happy with a valuation could cost the state in legal fees and time.
Rememeber the tribunals some of which are still stuck in legalese.

FF says other proposals involve TOTAL banking nationalisation
MYTH/LIE/SPIN
Many proposals inclunding Labours proposes temporary nationalization of the two main high street banks.

FF Says wholesale nationalisation of banks should be prevented at all costs as international markets will not lend to state owned banks
MYTH/LIE/SPIN
There is no evidence of this , and in fact lots of state owned banks do borrow on the international markets

We must avoid further Nationalisation at all costs
MYTH/LIE/SPIN
Many countries have already nationalized large financial entities. Or taken much larger shareholding in the banks it did bailout. We have taken a paltry 25% in the banks we have bailed out.

NAMA is akin to the much vaunted Swedish model.
MYTH/LIE/SPIN
NAMA is not like the Swedish Model. In the Swedish model there was much more temporary nationalisation
There was much more punitive measures in the legislation
There was a wholesale clearout of its banking executives.

The Govt, FF and Green Party says Irelands woes were caused by the collapse of Lehman brothers.
MYTH/LIE/SPIN
If you need this explained as to why it is totally bullshit bogus spin then you shouldn’t be reading this .

Green Party party claim they have a proud record of standing up to vested interests.
MYTH/LIE/SPIN
see item above

FF says it is taking every measure to prevent this form of financial corruption and financial irresponsibility from happening again.
MYTH/LIE/SPIN
They and other politicians have said this many times before , remember Ansbacher , off shore accounts, DIRT retention, bank over-charging etc…
There is no evidence to support this in fact the evidence indicates the oppossite

There is no method to stop NAMA from going through.
MYTH/LIE/SPIN
The president has an alternative. Let the people decide for themselves, the constitution provides for the President referring the NAMA bill to a referendum, it being an issue of National importance

Current trading in Irish bank shares is small scale investors and purely speculative
MYTH/LIE/SPIN
Finance Minister Brian Lenihan said trading in Irish banking shares is akin to a “bookie’s office operation” at the moment.
“The value of trading of these shares at this level is highly speculative,” Lenihan said in an interview with RTE radio. “There has been very little institutional dealing in Irish bank shares.”
Lots of Bloc trades have been issued in recent days, some massive volumes including trades of 1.5m shares in one lot, and the vast majority were trades of blocs of 10k and over. Sure Lenny, loads of grannies and day trading students.

This is a good deal for the TaxPayer
MYTH/LIE/SPIN
AIB and BOI have skyrocketed recently because the markets, stock brokers and investors know this is a great deal for the banks.

The NAMA haircut is between 35-40%
MYTH/LIE/SPIN
This may be the average but the bulk of the haircut is on Anglos loan book, the state already owns Anglo. Therefore its one state body paying another state body. The real focus is what he other non-nationalised banks are gtting.
The haircut the other banks have had to take is very small given how toxic their loans were, in fact for AIB and BOI its 20% or lower.

The NAMA Haircut of 35-40% (20% for BOI and AIB) was a good deal
MYTH/LIE/SPIN
Recently in the high court case involving Zoe and ACC/Rabobank it was accepted by both parties that the haircut on some property loans was in the region of 70-75%.
Recent receiver fire sales of properties have documented falls of over 60% as shown on a Primetime Special
20% haircut for AIB and BOI is not a good deal,

NAMA will Redevelop some hotel properties
MYTH/LIE/SPIN
Estimates are huge amounts of finished and unfinished hotel projects will come into NAMAs
Currently the Irish hotel industry is in its worst state ever. There is no need for one more hotel room in Ireland
The return on hotel investment is very low, we have over capacity in hotels.

25% Value of loans been taken over by NAMA were covered.
MYTH/LIE/SPIN
Its an acknowledged fact many developers used other properties as collateral for loans. This collateral is now worthless.
Many developers used other loans to finance larger loans… ie Borrow 1 million from one bank to get 10 million from another.
Many solicitors and developers have been found to have multiple mortgages taken out on the same properties, again worthless loans.

NAMA will Redevelop housing projects over the long term
MYTH/LIE/SPIN
There is no evidence to suggest we have ashortage of housing or will have a shortage of housing in the coming years.
In fact we will have net Emigration next year.
Waterford has 4,000 houses for sale
The Midlands is plagued with over supply and overzoning

International commentators are stating NAMA is the best model.
MYTH/LIE/SPIN
The main people saying NAMA is a good deal are DAVY, Bloxham, stockbrokers, AIB,BOI, and also the ex heads of these banks.
These are the main voices saying NAMA is a good deal. The same voices who got us into this mess.

The taxpayer is protected if NAMA does not work out
MYTH/LIE/SPIN
There is no specific levy in this legislation should there be a downside for the taxpayer. There is only a provision for the Minister to ask for one if he decides at a future date we require one. That’s not protection for the taxpayer.
Real protection for the taxpayer would involve explicitly placing a levy in the legislation

We have to do our patriotic duty and swallow this biter pill
MYTH/LIE/SPIN
Why did the government not ask the banks chiefs and FAS chairman who retired to do their patirotic duty and walk away from their pension pots and golden parachutes.

The ECONOMIST Magazine Thinks the NAMA plan is a good plan
MYTH/LIE/SPIN
“The Econmist has welcomed it in the sense that its finally doing something but they have also clearly stated who they see as benefiting best from NAMA and it isn’t the Tax payer. “
The government seems to have erred on the side of favouring shareholders, largely to minimise the amount of capital it would have to inject into the banks.
“The trouble is that the banks have run up such large losses that it will be lucky to achieve even two of its three objectives”

The Financial Timess Thinks the NAMA plan is a good plan
MYTH/LIE/SPIN
They have given a guarded welcome to the plan and only in the sense that the banks and markets have responded in a positive manner to the plan. The FT has not stated this is a good deal for the country or the tax payer.
“Property loans are only one problem facing Ireland’s recession-bound lenders”

NAMA will get development value out of the properties it is taking on
MYTH/LIE/SPIN
(The full breakdown is: land (36%), development (28%) and associated loans (36%), we have €21bn, or more than half accounted for, by land
This is the very same land that we have heard has been devalued by anything up to 95% from the peak, due to the probability of a good deal of land being rezoned to agricultural. It’s reasonable to assume that this land splits down in some way between that which probably will be developed (and which has presumably fallen in value by 50%), and that which probably won’t (likely down 90%).

NAMA Legislation will protect the NAMA agency form political interference.
MYTH/LIE/SPIN
Much of the NAMA legislation is very vague and allows for lots of decisions to be made at the exclusive whim of the Minister for Finance .
NAMA is akin to the all empowering PATRIOT Act that Bush pushed through in the US

The government has driven a hard bargain with the Banks
MYTH/LIE/SPIN
Interim director of NAMA Brendan McDonagh, said the number of loans the banks had earmarked for NAMA had increased significantly since the draft bill was published because banks had reassessed their books.
In two weeks, after the draft legislation the number of loans the banks wished to pass to the tax payer rose from 18,000 to 21,500.

Popular Media are behind NAMA
MYTH/LIE/SPIN
The popular Irish Media, broadsheets and television got it drastically wrong during the boom equally these same entities and same persons in many cases will get it drastically wrong on this matter.

AIB BOI Bank Shares are up …we should celebrate
MYTH/LIE/SPIN
A few years back when bank shares were hitting 18 euro the media thought that was good for the country too, long term it has been PROVEN to be a false economy and of no long term benefit to the nation as a whole.

Trust FF and the government on NAMA
MYTH/LIE/SPIN
FF and the governemtn have gotten so many decisions, agencys , policys wrong they have a proven track record of ineptitude, incompetence and corruption over and over again.. This is another example
PPARS, e-Voting, FAS, Thornton hall, Section 23 hotel breaks, ministers expenses, rezoning, tribunals…etc etc

Not a gamble..
MYTH/LIE/SPIN
Yes it is a gamble

The ECB have not had historical high interest rates
MYTH/LIE/SPIN
Yes the ECB has had high interest rates and is forecast to have so in the medium to long term future
The government has given no analysis of the impact rising ECB interest rates will have on the cost of NAMA

NAMA will Manage property prices without political interference
MYTH/LIE/SPIN
The state will become the largest property developer in the state and possibly the world. It will want prices to rise not fall and we all know that rising prices are not good .
The IMF recommends Governments do not artificially prop up house process, which is exactly what NAMA will have todo for it to work.

The NAMA Model is the cheapest bailout guarantee in the world
MYTH/LIE/SPIN
Taken on a per head of population basis NAMA and the billions we have already put into the banks means NAMA is not the cheapest bailout , in fact its working out more expenseive than the US and UK Model.
And in the US and the UK they have taken larger (75-100%) ownership of some of the financial institutions they have bailed out.